Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 10% One-Day Drop?
Rain has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 22.86% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | 6.54% | 5.42% | 75.0% | 9.96% | -1.37% |
| 3 days | 4 | 17.45% | 16.00% | 100.0% | 24.31% | 4.77% |
| 7 days | 4 | 22.86% | 30.99% | 100.0% | 63.61% | 14.64% |
| 14 days | 4 | 19.80% | 28.85% | 100.0% | 68.94% | 6.86% |
| 30 days | 4 | 26.63% | 35.67% | 100.0% | 78.77% | 10.64% |
| 90 days | 4 | 169.01% | 147.15% | 100.0% | 222.18% | 28.43% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | -10.03 | $0.01 | -1.37% | +19.22% | +20.07% | +13.85% | +10.93% | +132.18% |
| 2025-12-26 | -12.93 | $0.01 | +9.96% | +15.68% | +14.64% | +25.75% | +42.33% | +28.43% |
| 2025-10-09 | -14.63 | $0.00 | +7.36% | +24.31% | +25.65% | +6.86% | +10.64% | +205.83% |
| 2025-09-14 | -11.97 | $0.00 | +5.72% | +4.77% | +63.61% | +68.94% | +78.77% | +222.18% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-14: +63.61%
- 2025-10-09: +25.65%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-26: +14.64%
- 2026-04-06: +20.07%
- 2025-10-09: +25.65%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.