Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
14 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $298.7460 | $308.2084 | +3.17% | 103.17 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $304.8768 | $335.2302 | +9.96% | 113.44 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $345.1926 | $387.3602 | +12.22% | 127.30 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $399.3680 | $405.0283 | +1.42% | 129.10 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $405.0283 | $441.1812 | +8.93% | 140.62 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $443.1627 | $614.2002 | +38.59% | 194.90 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $498.4438 | $455.0858 | -8.70% | 177.94 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $452.2150 | $292.3172 | -35.36% | 115.02 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $382.5622 | $385.7068 | +0.82% | 115.97 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $321.4254 | $337.2827 | +4.93% | 121.69 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $360.0848 | $369.5125 | +2.62% | 124.88 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.