Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 3x Volume Spike?
Monero has recorded 3 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -20.92% and 0.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 3 | 5.98% | 3.58% | 66.7% | 9.91% | -5.16% |
| 3 days | 3 | -8.05% | -6.02% | 33.3% | 6.57% | -16.58% |
| 7 days | 3 | -20.92% | -16.48% | 0.0% | -1.71% | -26.82% |
| 14 days | 3 | -29.09% | -30.65% | 0.0% | -27.95% | -34.91% |
| 30 days | 3 | -46.03% | -46.38% | 0.0% | -42.31% | -50.82% |
| 90 days | 3 | -46.59% | -45.16% | 0.0% | -37.74% | -51.13% |
Historical occurrences
3 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 3.53 | $561.55 | +9.91% | -8.05% | -20.92% | -29.09% | -42.31% | -37.74% |
| 2026-01-15 | 4.39 | $705.59 | -5.16% | -16.58% | -26.82% | -34.91% | -50.82% | -51.13% |
| 2026-01-13 | 4.28 | $627.97 | +5.98% | +6.57% | -1.71% | -27.95% | -46.03% | -46.59% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-13: -1.71%
- 2026-01-19: -20.92%
- 2026-01-15: -26.82%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-15: -26.82%
- 2026-01-19: -20.92%
- 2026-01-13: -1.71%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.