Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Monero has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.32% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -34.1% to -27.9% | 1 |
| -27.9% to -21.8% | 1 |
| -21.8% to -15.6% | 0 |
| -15.6% to -9.5% | 2 |
| -9.5% to -3.3% | 0 |
| -3.3% to +2.8% | 4 |
| +2.8% to +8.9% | 4 |
| +8.9% to +15.1% | 2 |
| +15.1% to +21.2% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.89% | -0.85% | 52.6% | 3.40% | -9.64% |
| 3 days | 19 | 2.82% | 1.46% | 63.2% | 14.89% | -15.32% |
| 7 days | 19 | 1.32% | 1.70% | 52.6% | 20.66% | -16.51% |
| 14 days | 18 | 4.85% | 2.06% | 61.1% | 21.23% | -34.06% |
| 30 days | 18 | 6.37% | 4.53% | 72.2% | 40.27% | -45.14% |
| 90 days | 16 | -2.27% | 3.46% | 37.5% | 55.20% | -40.80% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -1.52 | $506.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | -3.61 | $500.07 | +2.53% | +4.35% | +1.32% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | -1.10 | $341.70 | +3.40% | +4.79% | +2.74% | +10.38% | +33.10% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -5.29 | $319.06 | -1.34% | +0.39% | -3.59% | -0.53% | +5.23% | — |
| 2026-06-02 | -6.38 | $343.92 | -5.29% | +8.57% | -8.53% | +1.13% | -10.09% | +41.57% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.22 | $395.80 | -3.59% | -1.57% | -0.87% | -10.55% | -14.56% | -0.77% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.45 | $376.16 | +0.89% | +1.82% | +10.27% | +5.45% | +5.48% | -9.16% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.96 | $335.38 | +3.34% | +2.82% | +3.49% | +16.71% | +22.64% | -3.78% |
| 2026-03-20 | -1.68 | $336.96 | +3.36% | +5.78% | -4.33% | -3.14% | +3.76% | -0.03% |
| 2026-03-09 | -2.79 | $329.99 | +2.13% | +6.95% | +6.38% | +8.01% | +4.20% | -10.33% |
| 2026-02-23 | -3.83 | $309.62 | -1.10% | +7.95% | +8.73% | +6.58% | +8.64% | +24.78% |
| 2026-02-04 | -0.94 | $372.42 | +1.12% | -14.84% | -7.02% | -13.01% | -3.85% | +9.11% |
| 2026-01-25 | -2.13 | $491.45 | -9.64% | -7.40% | -6.35% | -34.06% | -37.69% | -25.08% |
| 2026-01-18 | -4.17 | $588.62 | -4.60% | -15.32% | -16.51% | -21.81% | -45.14% | -40.80% |
| 2025-12-24 | -3.32 | $448.08 | -3.04% | -0.75% | -2.03% | -1.37% | +13.12% | -22.41% |
| 2025-12-07 | -1.71 | $392.54 | -7.61% | -1.10% | +5.55% | +21.23% | +11.17% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-21 | -7.37 | $339.24 | -1.02% | +14.89% | +20.66% | +18.71% | +40.27% | -3.89% |
| 2025-11-05 | -1.88 | $338.71 | +1.21% | +8.81% | +9.34% | +19.10% | +18.90% | +11.00% |
| 2025-09-28 | -0.40 | $286.56 | +1.40% | +3.07% | +15.30% | +4.25% | +19.13% | +55.20% |
| 2025-09-20 | -1.68 | $294.26 | +1.63% | -1.44% | -2.22% | +10.07% | +7.25% | +41.30% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +20.66%
- 2025-09-28: +15.30%
- 2026-04-30: +10.27%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-18: -16.51%
- 2026-06-02: -8.53%
- 2026-02-04: -7.02%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.