Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 45 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.28% and 48.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -16.1% to -13.1% | 1 |
| -13.1% to -10.1% | 1 |
| -10.1% to -7.2% | 1 |
| -7.2% to -4.2% | 2 |
| -4.2% to -1.2% | 6 |
| -1.2% to +1.7% | 15 |
| +1.7% to +4.7% | 9 |
| +4.7% to +7.7% | 4 |
| +7.7% to +10.6% | 6 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 46 | -0.01% | 0.21% | 50.0% | 12.08% | -8.22% |
| 3 days | 45 | 1.37% | 1.17% | 64.4% | 10.64% | -16.09% |
| 7 days | 45 | -0.28% | 0.84% | 48.9% | 32.29% | -24.26% |
| 14 days | 44 | 3.34% | 3.52% | 63.6% | 43.37% | -32.43% |
| 30 days | 43 | 5.61% | 4.75% | 65.1% | 48.24% | -47.41% |
| 90 days | 38 | -2.08% | 9.52% | 47.4% | 133.77% | -48.47% |
Historical occurrences
46 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | -3.82 | $518.09 | -0.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | -3.81 | $518.82 | -3.61% | -2.04% | -0.83% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | -3.03 | $504.86 | -2.14% | +3.12% | -0.95% | +0.36% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | -4.98 | $377.17 | +4.13% | +5.99% | +9.34% | +16.44% | +34.75% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | -3.01 | $351.07 | +4.29% | +7.81% | +7.44% | +17.47% | +48.24% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -4.62 | $319.61 | -1.69% | +0.97% | +3.18% | +10.26% | +18.42% | — |
| 2026-07-01 | -3.71 | $303.51 | +1.88% | +6.78% | +10.41% | +9.02% | +18.64% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -5.29 | $319.06 | -1.34% | +0.39% | -3.59% | -0.53% | +5.23% | — |
| 2026-06-13 | -8.68 | $353.58 | -4.36% | -1.63% | -10.97% | -9.30% | -8.43% | +43.74% |
| 2026-06-06 | -17.53 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-06-02 | -6.38 | $343.92 | -5.29% | +8.57% | -8.53% | +1.13% | -10.09% | +41.57% |
| 2026-05-31 | -6.69 | $370.26 | -0.79% | -12.03% | -20.08% | -8.67% | -14.87% | +27.46% |
| 2026-05-29 | -9.86 | $354.02 | +12.08% | +3.76% | +5.47% | +9.37% | -11.58% | +23.61% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.02 | $380.50 | +1.53% | +1.37% | +4.28% | -19.07% | -15.82% | +7.81% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.59 | $381.58 | +1.80% | +0.26% | -0.28% | +3.99% | -10.65% | +3.02% |
| 2026-05-14 | -3.56 | $396.67 | -0.22% | -2.07% | +1.85% | -0.99% | -10.87% | -4.92% |
| 2026-05-08 | -3.65 | $399.63 | +0.03% | +2.46% | -0.96% | -1.82% | -25.96% | -8.39% |
| 2026-04-23 | -4.86 | $366.83 | +3.39% | +1.56% | +2.54% | +13.07% | +3.73% | -2.60% |
| 2026-04-09 | -4.81 | $327.30 | +5.90% | +3.47% | +5.36% | +12.08% | +22.13% | +2.39% |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.12 | $326.39 | -3.04% | +1.69% | +6.20% | +5.16% | +17.35% | -5.26% |
| 2026-03-27 | -4.52 | $322.38 | +1.28% | +1.43% | +1.24% | +7.52% | +15.57% | -2.39% |
| 2026-03-25 | -3.25 | $336.36 | +0.38% | -2.93% | -0.64% | +2.22% | +12.75% | -5.60% |
| 2026-03-22 | -3.93 | $334.58 | +6.53% | +0.53% | -1.16% | -2.97% | +5.61% | -5.92% |
| 2026-03-19 | -4.55 | $342.70 | -1.68% | -2.37% | -1.47% | -1.69% | +1.68% | +0.79% |
| 2026-03-13 | -3.44 | $340.81 | +3.39% | +3.01% | -1.13% | -5.41% | -0.64% | -1.76% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-05: +32.29%
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-16: -24.26%
- 2026-02-02: -20.54%
- 2026-05-31: -20.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.