Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 2x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Monero dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -51.1% to -39.5% | 1 |
| -39.5% to -27.8% | 1 |
| -27.8% to -16.2% | 2 |
| -16.2% to -4.5% | 1 |
| -4.5% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +18.8% | 0 |
| +18.8% to +30.4% | 0 |
| +30.4% to +42.1% | 0 |
| +42.1% to +53.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
9 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 2.22 | $520.60 | +6.74% | -0.34% | +0.24% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.05 | $486.87 | +6.93% | +1.47% | +10.78% | +6.41% | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 2.18 | $353.58 | -4.36% | -1.63% | -10.97% | -9.30% | -8.43% | +43.74% |
| 2026-04-22 | 2.47 | $385.59 | -4.86% | -4.51% | -2.01% | +6.85% | +1.76% | -12.53% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.00 | $460.24 | -13.48% | -19.08% | -29.59% | -23.53% | -26.51% | -17.55% |
| 2026-01-15 | 4.39 | $705.59 | -5.16% | -16.58% | -26.82% | -34.91% | -50.82% | -51.13% |
| 2026-01-12 | 2.42 | $554.30 | +13.29% | +27.29% | +1.31% | -19.89% | -37.53% | -38.91% |
| 2025-11-10 | 2.45 | $417.37 | -7.19% | -7.09% | -2.72% | -6.62% | -6.98% | -22.36% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.97 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-31: +10.78%
- 2026-01-12: +1.31%
- 2026-09-05: +0.24%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -29.59%
- 2026-01-15: -26.82%
- 2026-06-13: -10.97%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.