Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.54% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | 2.74% | 2.52% | 75.0% | 8.50% | -3.90% |
| 3 days | 4 | 2.79% | 3.64% | 100.0% | 8.24% | 0.74% |
| 7 days | 4 | 2.54% | 2.39% | 50.0% | 14.83% | -10.33% |
| 14 days | 4 | -11.53% | -9.35% | 50.0% | 14.39% | -28.75% |
| 30 days | 4 | -10.98% | -9.69% | 50.0% | 16.13% | -32.91% |
| 90 days | 4 | 12.90% | 16.42% | 50.0% | 69.01% | -29.11% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -22.40 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-02-06 | -35.36 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
| 2026-01-26 | -20.92 | $444.07 | +1.89% | +3.42% | -10.33% | -28.75% | -28.26% | -16.10% |
| 2026-01-21 | -25.10 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-26: -10.33%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.