Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Monero has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.34% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -38.9% to -30.3% | 1 |
| -30.3% to -21.6% | 1 |
| -21.6% to -13.0% | 0 |
| -13.0% to -4.4% | 1 |
| -4.4% to +4.3% | 0 |
| +4.3% to +12.9% | 0 |
| +12.9% to +21.5% | 1 |
| +21.5% to +30.2% | 0 |
| +30.2% to +38.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -2.01% | -0.19% | 50.0% | 13.29% | -8.68% |
| 3 days | 6 | -9.52% | -3.27% | 33.3% | 27.29% | -18.65% |
| 7 days | 6 | -5.34% | -6.28% | 33.3% | 11.68% | -22.40% |
| 14 days | 6 | -9.14% | -9.85% | 16.7% | 6.23% | -20.56% |
| 30 days | 6 | -13.78% | -11.41% | 16.7% | 25.43% | -37.53% |
| 90 days | 6 | 0.89% | 1.96% | 50.0% | 38.80% | -38.91% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 15.65 | $387.19 | -8.68% | -11.94% | -17.60% | -20.56% | -16.66% | +32.42% |
| 2026-06-04 | 11.67 | $363.73 | +2.66% | -18.65% | -7.95% | -7.38% | -10.89% | +38.80% |
| 2026-05-30 | 12.08 | $396.79 | -6.69% | -13.33% | -22.40% | -10.89% | -21.83% | +14.62% |
| 2026-01-12 | 25.88 | $554.30 | +13.29% | +27.29% | +1.31% | -19.89% | -37.53% | -38.91% |
| 2025-11-23 | 10.05 | $369.52 | +5.48% | +4.09% | +11.68% | +6.23% | +25.43% | -12.84% |
| 2025-11-10 | 13.61 | $417.37 | -7.19% | -7.09% | -2.72% | -6.62% | -6.98% | -22.36% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-23: +11.68%
- 2026-01-12: +1.31%
- 2025-11-10: -2.72%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-30: -22.40%
- 2026-06-12: -17.60%
- 2026-06-04: -7.95%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.