Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 10% One-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.89% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.1% to -18.2% | 1 |
| -18.2% to -7.3% | 0 |
| -7.3% to +3.6% | 1 |
| +3.6% to +14.5% | 0 |
| +14.5% to +25.4% | 0 |
| +25.4% to +36.3% | 0 |
| +36.3% to +47.2% | 1 |
| +47.2% to +58.1% | 1 |
| +58.1% to +69.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -17.53 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-02-06 | -22.38 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
| 2026-02-02 | -13.48 | $398.20 | -5.58% | -5.43% | -20.54% | -17.91% | -15.17% | -3.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | -19.24 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2025-10-11 | -13.97 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
- 2025-10-11: -0.89%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-02: -20.54%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
- 2025-10-11: -0.89%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.