Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Hyperliquid has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 8.22% and 80.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -47.4% to -32.5% | 2 |
| -32.5% to -17.6% | 0 |
| -17.6% to -2.7% | 0 |
| -2.7% to +12.2% | 1 |
| +12.2% to +27.1% | 0 |
| +27.1% to +42.0% | 0 |
| +42.0% to +56.9% | 0 |
| +56.9% to +71.8% | 1 |
| +71.8% to +86.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | -28.51 | $53.26 | +10.60% | +13.95% | +33.52% | +19.84% | +26.64% | +59.85% |
| 2025-12-19 | -22.76 | $22.53 | +10.40% | +9.87% | +8.22% | +7.39% | +12.79% | +86.75% |
| 2025-11-23 | -22.23 | $29.99 | +6.04% | +12.50% | +14.69% | +3.21% | -17.12% | +1.40% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.98 | $38.12 | -3.20% | +11.42% | -6.95% | +3.17% | +9.47% | -32.65% |
| 2025-09-25 | -21.11 | $45.56 | -11.04% | +0.29% | +3.54% | +2.02% | -13.69% | -47.41% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-11: +33.52%
- 2025-11-23: +14.69%
- 2025-12-19: +8.22%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-11: -6.95%
- 2025-09-25: +3.54%
- 2025-12-19: +8.22%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.