Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Ethereum has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.62% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -13.1% to -10.3% | 2 |
| -10.3% to -7.5% | 0 |
| -7.5% to -4.7% | 0 |
| -4.7% to -1.9% | 2 |
| -1.9% to +0.9% | 0 |
| +0.9% to +3.7% | 0 |
| +3.7% to +6.5% | 1 |
| +6.5% to +9.3% | 0 |
| +9.3% to +12.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 2.52% | 0.70% | 83.3% | 5.34% | -10.55% |
| 3 days | 6 | -2.56% | -0.42% | 33.3% | 6.28% | -5.35% |
| 7 days | 6 | -3.62% | -1.41% | 33.3% | 15.10% | -11.38% |
| 14 days | 6 | -3.07% | -2.13% | 33.3% | 12.12% | -13.11% |
| 30 days | 6 | -0.58% | -2.34% | 50.0% | 17.00% | -18.93% |
| 90 days | 6 | -15.70% | -9.27% | 33.3% | 35.15% | -37.54% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -2.36 | $1769.03 | -10.55% | -4.59% | -5.49% | -3.33% | +0.61% | +35.15% |
| 2026-05-20 | -0.92 | $2109.34 | +0.86% | -2.15% | -1.75% | -11.90% | -18.93% | -9.34% |
| 2026-02-02 | -7.60 | $2264.35 | +3.49% | -5.35% | -7.59% | -13.11% | -12.43% | +2.56% |
| 2025-12-19 | -0.20 | $2826.67 | +5.34% | +6.28% | +2.65% | +6.27% | +17.00% | -22.06% |
| 2025-11-15 | -3.24 | $3118.71 | +1.63% | -2.97% | -11.38% | -2.80% | -1.77% | -37.54% |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.18 | $3896.06 | +3.41% | +6.25% | +15.10% | +12.12% | +1.49% | -24.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2025-12-19: +2.65%
- 2026-05-20: -1.75%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -11.38%
- 2026-02-02: -7.59%
- 2026-06-05: -5.49%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.