Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Ethereum has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.89% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -21.8% to -18.3% | 1 |
| -18.3% to -14.8% | 0 |
| -14.8% to -11.3% | 3 |
| -11.3% to -7.8% | 2 |
| -7.8% to -4.3% | 1 |
| -4.3% to -0.8% | 4 |
| -0.8% to +2.7% | 4 |
| +2.7% to +6.2% | 5 |
| +6.2% to +9.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 21 | 0.14% | 0.30% | 52.4% | 6.38% | -3.64% |
| 3 days | 21 | -2.45% | -1.82% | 33.3% | 7.62% | -8.71% |
| 7 days | 21 | -2.89% | -2.05% | 33.3% | 11.31% | -13.61% |
| 14 days | 21 | -1.33% | -3.00% | 42.9% | 9.68% | -21.79% |
| 30 days | 19 | -3.00% | -5.25% | 36.8% | 10.08% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 17 | -26.37% | -17.92% | 23.5% | 46.93% | -41.66% |
Historical occurrences
21 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 8.10 | $2514.97 | -3.64% | -1.32% | -2.89% | -2.34% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 17.50 | $2251.73 | +3.32% | +7.62% | +11.31% | +6.18% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 6.55 | $1890.31 | +1.40% | -2.62% | +2.03% | +1.60% | -0.31% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 5.62 | $1698.56 | +3.44% | +5.05% | +2.72% | +9.68% | +8.53% | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 7.60 | $1687.88 | +0.15% | -3.97% | +2.23% | +1.01% | +4.94% | +46.93% |
| 2026-04-14 | 8.44 | $2374.02 | -2.00% | -1.05% | -2.50% | -2.95% | -4.87% | -23.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.43 | $2235.82 | -2.51% | +0.52% | +4.05% | +4.06% | +2.48% | -19.56% |
| 2026-03-17 | 7.40 | $2343.53 | -0.96% | -8.71% | -8.15% | -13.63% | +0.73% | -26.37% |
| 2026-03-05 | 7.29 | $2127.58 | -2.55% | -6.73% | -3.56% | +3.55% | -5.55% | -12.65% |
| 2026-02-26 | 10.85 | $2053.10 | -1.25% | -4.21% | +3.63% | -0.06% | -3.00% | +0.94% |
| 2026-02-14 | 5.16 | $2048.32 | +1.83% | -2.45% | -3.92% | -5.72% | +6.53% | +11.44% |
| 2026-02-07 | 12.72 | $2055.77 | +1.57% | +2.48% | -0.36% | -4.27% | -5.66% | +11.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 7.72 | $3330.50 | +0.64% | -1.14% | -11.67% | -9.32% | -41.52% | -28.72% |
| 2025-12-20 | 5.34 | $2977.66 | -0.01% | +0.93% | -1.72% | +5.29% | +10.08% | -28.15% |
| 2025-12-10 | 6.24 | $3318.72 | +0.14% | -6.99% | -10.87% | -10.65% | -6.41% | -39.95% |
| 2025-12-03 | 7.18 | $2997.60 | +6.38% | +0.74% | +10.71% | -1.33% | +0.21% | -32.32% |
| 2025-11-25 | 5.48 | $2952.33 | +0.21% | +2.12% | -5.27% | +5.81% | -0.24% | -36.10% |
| 2025-11-10 | 5.27 | $3578.80 | -0.36% | -4.65% | -13.61% | -21.79% | -7.27% | -41.66% |
| 2025-10-27 | 5.17 | $4158.57 | -0.99% | -6.15% | -6.09% | -13.94% | -28.86% | -29.04% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.79 | $4151.92 | +2.25% | -3.86% | -4.08% | +0.16% | -17.72% | -25.67% |
| 2025-09-13 | 5.65 | $4707.47 | -0.82% | -3.92% | -5.04% | -14.41% | -11.80% | -31.21% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +11.31%
- 2025-12-03: +10.71%
- 2026-04-08: +4.05%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-10: -13.61%
- 2026-01-14: -11.67%
- 2025-12-10: -10.87%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.