Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Ethereum has recorded 24 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.09% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.8% to -11.6% | 2 |
| -11.6% to -8.3% | 0 |
| -8.3% to -5.0% | 1 |
| -5.0% to -1.7% | 4 |
| -1.7% to +1.6% | 9 |
| +1.6% to +4.9% | 6 |
| +4.9% to +8.2% | 1 |
| +8.2% to +11.4% | 1 |
| +11.4% to +14.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 25 | 0.15% | 0.55% | 56.0% | 12.72% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 25 | 0.26% | 0.07% | 56.0% | 14.73% | -14.85% |
| 7 days | 24 | -0.09% | -1.65% | 50.0% | 9.67% | -23.94% |
| 14 days | 24 | -2.99% | -3.06% | 41.7% | 11.41% | -24.32% |
| 30 days | 24 | -9.07% | -8.00% | 37.5% | 19.70% | -33.73% |
| 90 days | 22 | -17.97% | -12.38% | 22.7% | 32.73% | -40.76% |
Historical occurrences
25 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.71 | $2467.53 | -1.22% | +2.34% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -3.37 | $1566.01 | +0.70% | +0.26% | +8.46% | +11.41% | +19.70% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -2.21 | $1710.08 | -0.07% | -0.30% | -8.42% | -0.67% | +8.90% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.25 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-05-29 | -0.71 | $2008.11 | +0.22% | -0.15% | -11.91% | -16.74% | -21.72% | +24.81% |
| 2026-05-18 | -2.26 | $2130.75 | -0.09% | -0.15% | -1.55% | -5.90% | -15.93% | -11.72% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.76 | $2258.48 | +1.07% | -3.47% | -5.80% | -10.45% | -26.25% | -16.74% |
| 2026-04-30 | -1.71 | $2253.62 | +0.15% | +3.05% | +4.32% | +0.22% | -10.70% | -14.78% |
| 2026-03-20 | -2.89 | $2139.51 | +0.33% | -3.92% | -3.74% | -4.07% | +9.91% | -18.26% |
| 2026-02-25 | -0.38 | $1852.08 | +10.85% | +4.27% | +7.07% | +9.89% | +11.20% | +13.96% |
| 2026-02-20 | -0.26 | $1949.61 | +0.94% | -3.24% | +4.00% | +6.35% | +5.98% | +9.12% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.91 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2026-01-31 | -4.24 | $2702.92 | -9.33% | -13.30% | -23.94% | -24.22% | -28.23% | -16.50% |
| 2026-01-21 | -7.68 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2026-01-10 | -0.66 | $3085.41 | +0.02% | +0.20% | +6.71% | -4.22% | -32.18% | -29.41% |
| 2025-12-26 | -1.48 | $2901.68 | +0.85% | +1.62% | +3.52% | +7.04% | +1.69% | -25.13% |
| 2025-12-17 | -0.20 | $2957.86 | -4.24% | +0.67% | +0.25% | +0.34% | +12.22% | -20.77% |
| 2025-11-22 | -2.42 | $2763.90 | +0.15% | +6.82% | +9.67% | +9.26% | +8.70% | -29.46% |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.10 | $3412.54 | -5.55% | -7.12% | -11.48% | -11.31% | -9.55% | -40.76% |
| 2025-10-30 | -1.91 | $3902.80 | -2.59% | -0.77% | -12.22% | -12.56% | -22.33% | -22.62% |
| 2025-10-23 | -1.56 | $3805.88 | +1.36% | +3.89% | +2.55% | -9.98% | -27.38% | -22.70% |
| 2025-10-17 | -2.45 | $3893.76 | -1.51% | +2.28% | -0.93% | -2.37% | -18.60% | -13.92% |
| 2025-10-12 | -2.45 | $3747.46 | +10.79% | +10.11% | +3.80% | +5.51% | -4.84% | -17.67% |
| 2025-09-24 | -0.88 | $4164.83 | -0.29% | -3.26% | -0.42% | +6.94% | -7.38% | -27.84% |
| 2025-09-16 | -1.82 | $4522.76 | -0.43% | +1.57% | -7.09% | -6.82% | -11.75% | -32.26% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-22: +9.67%
- 2026-06-26: +8.46%
- 2026-02-25: +7.07%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -23.94%
- 2025-10-30: -12.22%
- 2026-05-29: -11.91%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.