Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 2x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Ethereum dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.7% to -5.4% | 2 |
| -5.4% to -3.2% | 1 |
| -3.2% to -0.9% | 2 |
| -0.9% to +1.4% | 1 |
| +1.4% to +3.7% | 1 |
| +3.7% to +5.9% | 0 |
| +5.9% to +8.2% | 0 |
| +8.2% to +10.5% | 0 |
| +10.5% to +12.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
8 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 2.16 | $2511.46 | -2.75% | -3.79% | -0.15% | -2.94% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 3.95 | $2251.73 | +3.32% | +7.62% | +11.31% | +6.18% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 2.70 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.13 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.05 | $2343.46 | -4.99% | -22.17% | -10.10% | -14.73% | -9.21% | -0.89% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.16 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-20 | 2.06 | $3186.78 | -7.68% | -7.39% | -8.19% | -26.46% | -38.66% | -28.95% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.60 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +11.31%
- 2026-02-06: +6.80%
- 2026-06-06: +5.25%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2026-02-03: -10.10%
- 2026-01-20: -8.19%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.