Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Ethereum has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.79% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.9% to -13.6% | 2 |
| -13.6% to -11.2% | 1 |
| -11.2% to -8.8% | 0 |
| -8.8% to -6.4% | 0 |
| -6.4% to -4.0% | 0 |
| -4.0% to -1.6% | 1 |
| -1.6% to +0.7% | 1 |
| +0.7% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +5.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.31% | -1.12% | 33.3% | 10.79% | -8.75% |
| 3 days | 6 | -8.35% | -4.47% | 33.3% | 10.11% | -14.85% |
| 7 days | 6 | -4.79% | -4.96% | 33.3% | 3.80% | -14.80% |
| 14 days | 6 | -8.50% | -7.00% | 33.3% | 5.51% | -15.95% |
| 30 days | 6 | -10.01% | -11.11% | 0.0% | -4.84% | -19.38% |
| 90 days | 6 | -15.56% | -13.36% | 16.7% | 32.73% | -38.33% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -19.99 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-02-01 | -18.42 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2025-11-12 | -17.72 | $3416.07 | -0.10% | -8.70% | -8.62% | -13.39% | -5.20% | -38.33% |
| 2025-11-04 | -19.79 | $3600.36 | -8.75% | -8.00% | -0.95% | -15.95% | -11.43% | -37.11% |
| 2025-10-18 | -16.52 | $3835.01 | +1.43% | +3.78% | +2.63% | +0.31% | -19.38% | -13.45% |
| 2025-10-12 | -15.90 | $3747.46 | +10.79% | +10.11% | +3.80% | +5.51% | -4.84% | -17.67% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-12: +3.80%
- 2025-10-18: +2.63%
- 2025-11-04: -0.95%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2026-06-03: -11.82%
- 2025-11-12: -8.62%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.