Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
55 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 30 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (25 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $0.2782 | $0.2608 | -6.25% | 93.75 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $0.2413 | $0.2350 | -2.61% | 91.31 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $0.2473 | $0.2045 | -17.30% | 75.51 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $0.2045 | $0.1944 | -4.95% | 71.77 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $0.1936 | $0.1625 | -16.08% | 60.23 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $0.1615 | $0.1637 | +1.41% | 61.08 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $0.1637 | $0.1491 | -8.96% | 55.61 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.1355 | $0.1426 | +5.22% | 58.51 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-18 | $0.1434 | $0.1262 | -12.00% | 51.49 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $0.1262 | $0.1285 | +1.81% | 52.42 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.1236 | $0.1268 | +2.62% | 53.79 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $0.1402 | $0.1250 | -10.84% | 47.96 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $0.1198 | $0.1048 | -12.57% | 41.93 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $0.0887 | $0.0939 | +5.84% | 44.38 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $0.1029 | $0.0938 | -8.88% | 40.44 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.0938 | $0.0926 | -1.26% | 39.93 |
| 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-11 | $0.0906 | $0.0948 | +4.62% | 41.78 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.0956 | $0.0967 | +1.24% | 42.30 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.0925 | $0.0907 | -1.97% | 41.46 |
| 2026-04-19 | 2026-04-26 | $0.0948 | $0.0980 | +3.43% | 42.88 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-15 | $0.1079 | $0.1153 | +6.92% | 45.85 |
| 2026-05-17 | 2026-05-24 | $0.1093 | $0.1029 | -5.84% | 43.17 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.0926 | $0.0847 | -8.50% | 39.50 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-01 | $0.0788 | $0.0720 | -8.65% | 36.09 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.0742 | $0.0744 | +0.30% | 36.20 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $0.0692 | $0.0706 | +2.02% | 36.92 |
| 2026-08-13 | 2026-08-20 | $0.0696 | $0.0750 | +7.73% | 39.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 2026-09-01 | $0.0901 | $0.0828 | -8.04% | 36.58 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $0.0848 | $0.0843 | -0.60% | 36.36 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology