Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Chainlink has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.22% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.6% to -12.3% | 2 |
| -12.3% to -9.0% | 0 |
| -9.0% to -5.7% | 0 |
| -5.7% to -2.4% | 0 |
| -2.4% to +0.9% | 0 |
| +0.9% to +4.2% | 2 |
| +4.2% to +7.5% | 1 |
| +7.5% to +10.9% | 0 |
| +10.9% to +14.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 1.64% | 2.19% | 83.3% | 11.22% | -4.54% |
| 3 days | 6 | -2.07% | 1.62% | 33.3% | 19.05% | -5.52% |
| 7 days | 6 | 2.22% | -0.30% | 66.7% | 14.16% | -15.60% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.76% | 1.38% | 50.0% | 19.10% | -13.04% |
| 30 days | 6 | -3.00% | 0.50% | 16.7% | 23.70% | -7.15% |
| 90 days | 6 | -11.59% | -0.62% | 33.3% | 52.34% | -32.15% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $7.91 | +1.07% | -4.42% | +3.33% | -1.67% | -0.59% | +52.34% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $10.00 | -4.54% | -0.47% | -15.60% | -13.04% | -7.15% | -20.66% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $9.53 | +0.91% | -5.52% | +7.50% | +0.16% | -2.17% | -22.46% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $9.43 | +2.28% | +4.74% | +1.12% | +8.70% | -6.98% | -2.52% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $13.82 | +2.21% | -3.67% | -12.30% | -4.96% | -3.84% | -32.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2026-03-09: +7.50%
- 2026-06-08: +3.33%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-22: -15.60%
- 2025-11-15: -12.30%
- 2026-03-02: +1.12%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.