Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Chainlink has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.02% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -2.2% to +0.0% | 3 |
| +0.0% to +2.3% | 0 |
| +2.3% to +4.5% | 1 |
| +4.5% to +6.8% | 0 |
| +6.8% to +9.0% | 0 |
| +9.0% to +11.3% | 0 |
| +11.3% to +13.5% | 0 |
| +13.5% to +15.8% | 0 |
| +15.8% to +18.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -3.86 | $8.01 | -8.06% | -1.22% | -1.61% | -0.02% | -0.07% | +38.76% |
| 2026-05-02 | -0.07 | $9.09 | +0.87% | +2.84% | +13.78% | +10.70% | +0.46% | -7.11% |
| 2026-02-02 | -3.73 | $9.92 | +2.64% | -1.54% | -1.42% | -3.33% | -2.71% | -7.50% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.93 | $12.08 | +11.73% | +18.02% | +13.86% | +6.50% | +1.03% | -21.93% |
| 2025-09-24 | -0.63 | $21.53 | +0.37% | -2.21% | -1.02% | +1.39% | -19.09% | -41.63% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +13.86%
- 2026-05-02: +13.78%
- 2025-09-24: -1.02%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-05: -1.61%
- 2026-02-02: -1.42%
- 2025-09-24: -1.02%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.