Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Cardano has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.67% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.5% to -3.9% | 1 |
| -3.9% to -1.3% | 2 |
| -1.3% to +1.3% | 2 |
| +1.3% to +3.9% | 0 |
| +3.9% to +6.5% | 0 |
| +6.5% to +9.1% | 0 |
| +9.1% to +11.7% | 0 |
| +11.7% to +14.3% | 0 |
| +14.3% to +16.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 0.52% | 1.44% | 50.0% | 11.48% | -6.53% |
| 3 days | 6 | -1.55% | 0.86% | 33.3% | 16.85% | -6.53% |
| 7 days | 6 | 0.67% | -1.50% | 50.0% | 11.46% | -17.90% |
| 14 days | 6 | -2.34% | -3.17% | 50.0% | 14.43% | -15.57% |
| 30 days | 6 | -7.72% | -6.22% | 33.3% | 8.76% | -20.39% |
| 90 days | 6 | -29.80% | -18.20% | 33.3% | 32.21% | -43.79% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $0.17 | +3.17% | -2.73% | +10.77% | -5.17% | +5.76% | +32.21% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $0.29 | -6.53% | -1.16% | -14.68% | -13.96% | -13.91% | -43.79% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $0.27 | -0.03% | -1.94% | +8.42% | +0.50% | -1.53% | -41.36% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $0.29 | -0.51% | +0.67% | -7.08% | +0.74% | -16.01% | -18.25% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $0.50 | +1.07% | -6.53% | -17.90% | -15.57% | -20.39% | -43.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
- 2026-06-08: +10.77%
- 2026-03-09: +8.42%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -17.90%
- 2026-03-22: -14.68%
- 2026-03-02: -7.08%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.