Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Cardano has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.83% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -39.5% to -33.8% | 2 |
| -33.8% to -28.1% | 1 |
| -28.1% to -22.4% | 1 |
| -22.4% to -16.7% | 1 |
| -16.7% to -11.0% | 1 |
| -11.0% to -5.3% | 0 |
| -5.3% to +0.5% | 0 |
| +0.5% to +6.2% | 0 |
| +6.2% to +11.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | 1.08% | 1.50% | 80.0% | 12.41% | -12.81% |
| 3 days | 10 | -0.53% | 1.03% | 50.0% | 13.93% | -8.11% |
| 7 days | 10 | -2.83% | 0.11% | 40.0% | 12.13% | -8.50% |
| 14 days | 10 | 0.89% | 0.33% | 60.0% | 11.84% | -14.27% |
| 30 days | 10 | 2.68% | -0.46% | 60.0% | 19.76% | -34.08% |
| 90 days | 7 | -25.21% | -22.13% | 14.3% | 11.88% | -39.53% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | -1.97 | $0.19 | -2.41% | -3.72% | -6.71% | +11.84% | +9.44% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | -0.29 | $0.17 | +0.10% | -2.69% | -3.46% | +1.17% | +19.76% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -0.94 | $0.16 | +0.70% | -2.25% | -8.50% | +10.98% | +2.50% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -10.27 | $0.18 | -12.81% | -8.11% | -5.19% | -8.98% | +6.89% | +11.88% |
| 2026-05-20 | -1.36 | $0.25 | +0.39% | -2.30% | -3.30% | -14.27% | -34.08% | -29.81% |
| 2026-03-30 | -2.41 | $0.24 | +1.46% | +3.70% | +6.23% | -1.49% | +2.85% | -39.53% |
| 2026-03-10 | -0.03 | $0.27 | +3.10% | +6.29% | +12.13% | +3.27% | -6.54% | -38.39% |
| 2026-02-02 | -1.97 | $0.30 | +4.93% | +1.20% | +0.21% | -1.36% | -4.74% | -15.56% |
| 2025-12-19 | -4.16 | $0.35 | +7.10% | +4.22% | -2.35% | +1.54% | +12.90% | -18.30% |
| 2025-12-02 | -7.02 | $0.39 | +12.41% | +13.93% | +12.04% | +0.60% | -13.59% | -25.21% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-10: +12.13%
- 2025-12-02: +12.04%
- 2026-03-30: +6.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-20: -8.50%
- 2026-08-12: -6.71%
- 2026-06-05: -5.19%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.