Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Cardano has recorded 36 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.32% and 47.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -54.1% to -46.1% | 3 |
| -46.1% to -38.2% | 5 |
| -38.2% to -30.3% | 9 |
| -30.3% to -22.4% | 6 |
| -22.4% to -14.5% | 3 |
| -14.5% to -6.6% | 3 |
| -6.6% to +1.3% | 0 |
| +1.3% to +9.3% | 1 |
| +9.3% to +17.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 37 | -0.10% | 0.23% | 48.6% | 11.48% | -8.31% |
| 3 days | 37 | 0.23% | 0.94% | 51.4% | 16.85% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 36 | -0.32% | -1.88% | 47.2% | 19.30% | -23.44% |
| 14 days | 36 | -2.64% | -2.60% | 41.7% | 22.67% | -27.41% |
| 30 days | 35 | -8.81% | -8.90% | 40.0% | 15.92% | -38.16% |
| 90 days | 31 | -30.63% | -29.09% | 6.5% | 17.18% | -54.06% |
Historical occurrences
37 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -3.42 | $0.21 | -3.45% | -2.15% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -4.55 | $0.19 | +2.64% | +4.32% | +15.91% | +5.70% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | -2.47 | $0.19 | -1.92% | -6.17% | -10.09% | +16.66% | +12.85% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -2.85 | $0.16 | +5.11% | +2.12% | +7.75% | -1.23% | +15.92% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.10 | $0.17 | -4.38% | -4.57% | -5.26% | -0.61% | +15.13% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -3.34 | $0.14 | +3.19% | -0.01% | +12.29% | +15.88% | +14.65% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -3.22 | $0.17 | -1.91% | -2.16% | -10.86% | -7.76% | +0.01% | +17.18% |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.87 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-05-29 | -0.95 | $0.23 | -0.80% | +0.35% | -23.44% | -27.41% | -38.16% | -9.50% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.18 | $0.25 | -0.22% | -1.19% | -3.93% | -6.57% | -31.66% | -30.07% |
| 2026-05-14 | -2.30 | $0.26 | +2.06% | -3.65% | -5.93% | -10.51% | -35.93% | -29.38% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.90 | $0.24 | +0.65% | +2.27% | +9.20% | +8.23% | -4.83% | -33.85% |
| 2026-04-20 | -2.62 | $0.24 | +2.20% | +2.37% | +3.91% | +2.76% | +2.18% | -31.36% |
| 2026-04-13 | -5.28 | $0.24 | +5.25% | +4.27% | +2.69% | +6.71% | +14.62% | -29.94% |
| 2026-03-28 | -8.56 | $0.25 | -0.22% | -1.21% | +0.05% | +3.11% | +2.36% | -41.71% |
| 2026-03-21 | -6.08 | $0.27 | +8.26% | +3.94% | -7.43% | -7.38% | -8.81% | -38.57% |
| 2026-03-08 | -0.09 | $0.28 | -2.99% | -0.02% | +4.70% | +4.31% | -11.08% | -43.31% |
| 2026-03-04 | -1.67 | $0.28 | +2.90% | -2.00% | -2.10% | +8.16% | -14.96% | -18.21% |
| 2026-02-24 | -1.34 | $0.28 | -0.99% | +7.08% | +2.78% | -4.05% | +1.73% | -13.29% |
| 2026-02-06 | -15.26 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-01-31 | -4.72 | $0.33 | -8.31% | -5.69% | -14.07% | -11.61% | -12.48% | -25.31% |
| 2026-01-20 | -2.00 | $0.38 | -3.45% | -0.72% | -3.50% | -17.71% | -23.62% | -35.73% |
| 2026-01-09 | -1.52 | $0.40 | +2.04% | +3.42% | +1.98% | -5.29% | -29.37% | -36.75% |
| 2025-12-31 | -0.53 | $0.35 | -5.04% | +12.82% | +19.30% | +22.67% | -1.44% | -30.63% |
| 2025-12-26 | -3.71 | $0.34 | +1.83% | +7.31% | +3.98% | +15.38% | +14.26% | -17.22% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-31: +19.30%
- 2026-08-31: +15.91%
- 2026-06-26: +12.29%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-29: -23.44%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2025-11-14: -18.36%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.