Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 2x Volume Spike?
Cardano has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.62% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.0% to -15.6% | 1 |
| -15.6% to -12.3% | 0 |
| -12.3% to -8.9% | 0 |
| -8.9% to -5.6% | 1 |
| -5.6% to -2.2% | 0 |
| -2.2% to +1.1% | 1 |
| +1.1% to +4.5% | 1 |
| +4.5% to +7.8% | 0 |
| +7.8% to +11.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -0.35% | 1.05% | 33.3% | 15.15% | -5.85% |
| 3 days | 6 | 0.96% | 0.18% | 66.7% | 14.77% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 6 | -4.62% | -5.13% | 33.3% | 7.45% | -22.33% |
| 14 days | 5 | -1.02% | -2.67% | 40.0% | 11.15% | -19.00% |
| 30 days | 4 | -2.62% | -5.20% | 50.0% | 8.59% | -24.14% |
| 90 days | 2 | -22.37% | -22.37% | 0.0% | -7.00% | -37.73% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2.11 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 2.50 | $0.20 | +15.15% | +14.00% | +7.45% | +11.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 2.44 | $0.20 | -0.11% | -3.28% | -9.34% | -1.02% | +8.59% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 2.14 | $0.19 | +2.20% | +0.93% | +2.67% | -7.69% | +3.82% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 2.25 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.97 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-21: +7.45%
- 2026-08-03: +2.67%
- 2025-10-11: -1.76%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2026-08-07: -9.34%
- 2026-09-04: -7.49%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.