Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB After a 3% One-Day Rise?
BNB has recorded 27 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.05% and 44.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.7% to -8.3% | 2 |
| -8.3% to -5.9% | 0 |
| -5.9% to -3.5% | 2 |
| -3.5% to -1.1% | 7 |
| -1.1% to +1.3% | 6 |
| +1.3% to +3.7% | 6 |
| +3.7% to +6.1% | 2 |
| +6.1% to +8.5% | 1 |
| +8.5% to +10.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | -0.25% | 0.49% | 33.3% | 8.84% | -3.26% |
| 3 days | 27 | 0.05% | -0.15% | 51.9% | 10.89% | -10.67% |
| 7 days | 27 | -1.05% | -0.19% | 44.4% | 18.90% | -20.16% |
| 14 days | 25 | 0.12% | -0.60% | 56.0% | 25.54% | -16.27% |
| 30 days | 24 | -4.34% | -4.93% | 37.5% | 19.80% | -34.91% |
| 90 days | 23 | -10.21% | -11.48% | 21.7% | 26.91% | -38.78% |
Historical occurrences
27 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6.23 | $766.41 | -1.79% | -1.86% | -5.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.35 | $725.08 | -0.50% | +3.81% | -2.30% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 3.90 | $627.05 | +4.39% | +10.89% | +12.83% | +9.76% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.55 | $591.70 | -0.88% | -0.66% | +0.00% | +3.11% | +17.04% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.21 | $605.02 | -0.25% | +1.86% | -4.45% | -7.44% | -5.04% | +19.44% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.16 | $603.90 | -0.39% | -2.93% | +2.05% | -3.34% | -4.52% | +26.91% |
| 2026-05-31 | 11.95 | $719.28 | -1.33% | -9.60% | -20.16% | -15.29% | -22.34% | -3.89% |
| 2026-04-14 | 4.04 | $615.96 | -0.22% | +3.30% | +2.18% | +1.79% | +9.00% | -6.86% |
| 2026-04-08 | 3.40 | $621.12 | -3.26% | -2.46% | -1.05% | +1.70% | +2.57% | -5.73% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.75 | $634.87 | +1.10% | +2.49% | +6.83% | +0.68% | -5.35% | -4.88% |
| 2026-03-05 | 3.94 | $658.32 | -1.56% | -5.68% | -1.05% | -1.02% | -10.61% | -1.23% |
| 2026-03-03 | 3.03 | $637.43 | -0.64% | +1.67% | -0.40% | +6.40% | -4.16% | +11.35% |
| 2026-02-26 | 7.77 | $629.06 | -0.55% | -1.80% | +4.65% | +3.55% | -2.61% | +4.25% |
| 2026-02-21 | 3.20 | $626.53 | -0.13% | -4.77% | -2.11% | +0.05% | +0.00% | +4.90% |
| 2026-02-07 | 7.85 | $654.55 | -1.18% | -2.69% | -5.44% | -4.28% | -6.51% | -2.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.28 | $943.28 | +0.47% | -0.64% | -6.51% | -4.87% | -34.91% | -34.70% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.14 | $855.80 | -0.22% | +0.26% | -2.52% | +2.99% | +8.28% | -25.31% |
| 2025-12-03 | 6.15 | $877.02 | +5.03% | +0.75% | +2.32% | -0.25% | -1.58% | -27.32% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.46 | $892.14 | +0.39% | -2.12% | +3.24% | +0.12% | -6.49% | -34.57% |
| 2025-11-08 | 4.41 | $991.37 | -0.25% | +0.05% | -7.61% | -16.27% | -9.75% | -38.78% |
| 2025-10-24 | 5.17 | $1127.48 | -1.68% | +0.94% | -4.41% | -15.78% | -26.10% | -21.70% |
| 2025-10-13 | 14.63 | $1303.27 | -0.67% | -10.67% | -14.82% | -12.67% | -26.51% | -30.44% |
| 2025-10-07 | 5.01 | $1226.05 | +6.55% | +2.41% | +5.58% | -10.20% | -21.85% | -26.90% |
| 2025-10-03 | 6.19 | $1091.16 | +8.84% | +7.00% | +15.07% | +4.97% | +0.30% | -20.94% |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.81 | $1031.15 | -2.16% | +5.82% | +18.90% | +25.54% | +7.41% | -16.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-30: +18.90%
- 2025-10-03: +15.07%
- 2026-08-20: +12.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-31: -20.16%
- 2025-10-13: -14.82%
- 2025-11-08: -7.61%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.