Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB After a 3% One-Day Drop?
BNB has recorded 26 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.27% and 46.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.8% to -10.7% | 2 |
| -10.7% to -8.6% | 0 |
| -8.6% to -6.5% | 0 |
| -6.5% to -4.4% | 2 |
| -4.4% to -2.3% | 4 |
| -2.3% to -0.2% | 6 |
| -0.2% to +1.9% | 11 |
| +1.9% to +4.0% | 1 |
| +4.0% to +6.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | -0.45% | -1.36% | 48.1% | 6.15% | -12.81% |
| 3 days | 27 | 0.95% | -0.41% | 59.3% | 13.50% | -12.62% |
| 7 days | 26 | -0.27% | -2.58% | 46.2% | 14.63% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 26 | -3.70% | -2.78% | 42.3% | 31.91% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 26 | -5.86% | -6.62% | 34.6% | 17.32% | -31.16% |
| 90 days | 25 | -20.41% | -15.35% | 12.0% | 26.77% | -34.19% |
Historical occurrences
27 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -3.92 | $722.66 | -1.97% | +0.65% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -3.81 | $578.09 | +0.42% | +0.98% | -3.13% | -3.46% | -1.35% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -5.28 | $571.97 | +0.40% | +5.17% | +5.51% | +1.50% | +3.01% | +26.77% |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.04 | $650.24 | -4.68% | -12.04% | -8.79% | -7.05% | -14.17% | +6.29% |
| 2026-04-09 | -3.26 | $600.88 | +0.40% | +1.05% | +3.72% | +6.16% | +8.05% | -4.04% |
| 2026-04-03 | -4.39 | $584.08 | +0.75% | +3.85% | +3.29% | +8.94% | +5.81% | -5.84% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.05 | $628.08 | -2.46% | -3.56% | -7.00% | -3.94% | +0.09% | -10.21% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.27 | $626.85 | -0.95% | +1.28% | +4.52% | +2.44% | -3.24% | -3.67% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.79 | $589.47 | +1.22% | +6.72% | +4.96% | +3.81% | +8.28% | +11.24% |
| 2026-02-05 | -7.50 | $696.06 | -12.81% | -7.08% | -12.59% | -13.21% | -9.94% | -9.42% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.03 | $779.69 | -2.78% | -3.48% | -17.04% | -18.88% | -18.25% | -21.07% |
| 2026-01-30 | -3.83 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.44 | $881.89 | +0.10% | +0.95% | +1.75% | -14.67% | -31.16% | -28.63% |
| 2025-12-18 | -3.67 | $842.77 | -1.55% | +1.32% | +0.38% | +2.36% | +11.21% | -20.63% |
| 2025-12-02 | -5.63 | $826.18 | +6.15% | +9.00% | +8.61% | +3.90% | +4.42% | -25.11% |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.69 | $896.31 | -3.41% | -7.03% | -0.46% | +2.76% | -4.52% | -31.03% |
| 2025-11-14 | -3.02 | $924.54 | -0.93% | +0.16% | -6.36% | -3.13% | -2.98% | -34.19% |
| 2025-11-12 | -3.45 | $957.72 | -0.45% | -4.36% | -2.82% | -9.96% | -7.49% | -33.49% |
| 2025-11-04 | -8.39 | $992.66 | -5.60% | -4.34% | -0.08% | -8.73% | -7.21% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-29 | -3.08 | $1103.20 | +0.39% | -1.42% | -15.06% | -13.19% | -18.82% | -20.41% |
| 2025-10-22 | -3.98 | $1057.26 | +1.40% | +4.85% | +4.34% | -11.37% | -18.11% | -12.71% |
| 2025-10-18 | -6.41 | $1071.99 | +1.93% | +2.71% | +3.41% | +1.45% | -13.61% | -13.20% |
| 2025-10-15 | -6.51 | $1210.22 | -3.81% | -11.42% | -12.64% | -8.84% | -23.61% | -25.25% |
| 2025-10-10 | -3.99 | $1255.61 | -12.03% | +3.80% | -8.78% | -10.20% | -21.24% | -28.44% |
| 2025-10-05 | -3.09 | $1150.98 | +1.44% | +13.50% | -1.22% | -5.06% | -13.76% | -23.42% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +14.63%
- 2025-12-02: +8.61%
- 2026-06-06: +5.51%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2026-02-01: -17.04%
- 2025-10-29: -15.06%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.