Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Bitcoin has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.09% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.1% to -23.4% | 1 |
| -23.4% to -16.8% | 0 |
| -16.8% to -10.2% | 0 |
| -10.2% to -3.5% | 2 |
| -3.5% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +9.8% | 0 |
| +9.8% to +16.4% | 1 |
| +16.4% to +23.1% | 0 |
| +23.1% to +29.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $63273.54 | -0.32% | -2.83% | +3.85% | -0.03% | +0.10% | +26.15% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $68424.08 | -0.72% | +3.08% | -2.97% | -1.97% | +10.86% | -7.21% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $66042.75 | +3.62% | +6.04% | +10.43% | +2.86% | +8.51% | -7.85% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $65824.42 | +4.54% | +10.52% | +0.33% | +10.80% | +3.47% | +12.15% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $94772.61 | +0.64% | -2.82% | -10.22% | -4.08% | -6.95% | -30.09% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-09: +10.43%
- 2026-02-06: +5.54%
- 2026-06-08: +3.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -10.22%
- 2026-03-22: -2.97%
- 2026-03-02: +0.33%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.