Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a New 30-Day High?
Bitcoin has recorded 9 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.85% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.6% to -26.5% | 1 |
| -26.5% to -22.4% | 0 |
| -22.4% to -18.3% | 1 |
| -18.3% to -14.2% | 0 |
| -14.2% to -10.1% | 0 |
| -10.1% to -6.0% | 1 |
| -6.0% to -1.9% | 1 |
| -1.9% to +2.2% | 1 |
| +2.2% to +6.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 9 | 0.38% | 1.04% | 66.7% | 5.38% | -1.96% |
| 3 days | 9 | -0.20% | 0.87% | 44.4% | 11.24% | -3.04% |
| 7 days | 9 | -2.85% | -0.79% | 33.3% | 14.04% | -7.35% |
| 14 days | 8 | -1.05% | -0.50% | 37.5% | 11.55% | -9.58% |
| 30 days | 7 | -3.53% | -7.40% | 42.9% | 6.30% | -30.57% |
| 90 days | 6 | -17.57% | -18.07% | 0.0% | -11.69% | -26.50% |
Historical occurrences
9 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 1.24 | $81264.70 | -1.96% | -1.15% | -5.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 4.16 | $69291.01 | +5.38% | +11.24% | +14.04% | +11.55% | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.31 | $65184.92 | +2.05% | -0.20% | -2.28% | -2.64% | +6.30% | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 0.05 | $78677.42 | -0.21% | +2.84% | +2.54% | -0.69% | -9.35% | -20.15% |
| 2026-04-23 | 1.44 | $78238.82 | +0.05% | -0.77% | -3.14% | +4.09% | -3.53% | -14.98% |
| 2026-04-16 | 0.20 | $74826.31 | +0.38% | +1.19% | +4.56% | +1.28% | +5.67% | -13.15% |
| 2026-03-16 | 0.25 | $72934.29 | +2.39% | -2.35% | -6.86% | -9.58% | +1.87% | -11.69% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.65 | $95429.16 | +1.54% | +0.10% | -7.35% | -6.59% | -30.57% | -21.95% |
| 2026-01-06 | 1.29 | $93879.95 | -0.25% | -3.04% | -2.85% | -1.40% | -22.18% | -26.50% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +14.04%
- 2026-04-16: +4.56%
- 2026-05-03: +2.54%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -7.35%
- 2026-03-16: -6.86%
- 2026-09-04: -5.80%
How this study works
The daily reference price must exceed every earlier price in the prior 30 days; nearby highs are grouped.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.