Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Bitcoin has recorded 30 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.55% and 56.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -18.7% to -14.0% | 2 |
| -14.0% to -9.3% | 3 |
| -9.3% to -4.6% | 3 |
| -4.6% to +0.1% | 10 |
| +0.1% to +4.8% | 8 |
| +4.8% to +9.5% | 1 |
| +9.5% to +14.2% | 1 |
| +14.2% to +18.9% | 0 |
| +18.9% to +23.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 30 | -0.13% | -0.23% | 46.7% | 7.12% | -5.24% |
| 3 days | 30 | -0.94% | -0.13% | 40.0% | 21.07% | -12.98% |
| 7 days | 30 | 0.55% | -0.22% | 56.7% | 21.37% | -14.03% |
| 14 days | 30 | -0.91% | -0.79% | 40.0% | 23.57% | -18.70% |
| 30 days | 28 | -1.36% | -2.77% | 46.4% | 25.65% | -32.96% |
| 90 days | 19 | -21.51% | -19.17% | 10.5% | 6.29% | -30.09% |
Historical occurrences
30 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 0.01 | $79018.03 | +1.58% | -1.00% | -2.18% | -0.93% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | $64686.26 | +7.12% | +21.07% | +21.37% | +19.68% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.01 | $63537.56 | -0.20% | -0.87% | +1.81% | +23.57% | +20.49% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 0.01 | $63504.42 | -0.06% | +1.74% | +2.13% | -1.04% | +21.91% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 0.01 | $64743.34 | -2.97% | -1.91% | -0.74% | -2.03% | +20.82% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.01 | $63881.94 | +0.05% | -1.66% | +0.28% | -0.54% | +25.65% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.01 | $64983.52 | -0.41% | -1.66% | +2.37% | -1.70% | -2.39% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.01 | $63746.66 | -2.30% | +1.52% | +1.45% | +2.51% | -0.33% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.01 | $64110.97 | -0.50% | -2.86% | -0.32% | -0.03% | +1.16% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 0.01 | $63586.10 | +0.65% | -2.11% | +0.25% | +1.71% | +0.75% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.01 | $61490.21 | +1.73% | +3.41% | +2.77% | +3.74% | +2.09% | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 0.01 | $73598.67 | -3.10% | -12.98% | -14.03% | -10.72% | -20.43% | +6.29% |
| 2026-05-27 | 0.01 | $75851.10 | -1.99% | -3.10% | -12.03% | -18.70% | -21.26% | +4.12% |
| 2026-01-21 | 0.01 | $88416.89 | +1.17% | +1.25% | +0.82% | -14.46% | -24.25% | -14.20% |
| 2026-01-07 | 0.01 | $93649.63 | -2.52% | -3.31% | +1.90% | -5.59% | -32.96% | -26.67% |
| 2026-01-01 | 0.01 | $87575.05 | +1.36% | +3.47% | +4.24% | +10.65% | -3.98% | -22.23% |
| 2025-12-29 | 0.01 | $87867.04 | -0.81% | -0.33% | +4.57% | +3.40% | +1.45% | -24.44% |
| 2025-12-26 | 0.01 | $87192.23 | +0.13% | +0.77% | +1.80% | +4.40% | +2.25% | -18.22% |
| 2025-12-24 | 0.01 | $87496.15 | +0.11% | -0.22% | +0.99% | +7.03% | +2.27% | -18.87% |
| 2025-12-19 | 0.01 | $85450.18 | +3.09% | +3.77% | +2.04% | +3.88% | +10.95% | -16.65% |
| 2025-12-14 | 0.01 | $90253.12 | -2.29% | -2.81% | -2.11% | -2.66% | +1.05% | -21.51% |
| 2025-11-20 | 0.01 | $91408.36 | -5.24% | -7.37% | -0.98% | +2.21% | -3.63% | -26.09% |
| 2025-11-15 | 0.01 | $94772.61 | +0.64% | -2.82% | -10.22% | -4.08% | -6.95% | -30.09% |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.01 | $106451.71 | -4.67% | -4.88% | -0.47% | -13.48% | -12.23% | -27.76% |
| 2025-10-31 | 0.01 | $108409.38 | +1.07% | +1.93% | -6.59% | -8.24% | -16.21% | -17.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-19: +21.37%
- 2025-10-01: +6.46%
- 2025-09-10: +4.73%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-01: -14.03%
- 2026-05-27: -12.03%
- 2025-11-15: -10.22%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.