Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Bitcoin has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 4.21% and 80.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.3% to -3.0% | 1 |
| -3.0% to -1.7% | 0 |
| -1.7% to -0.4% | 0 |
| -0.4% to +0.9% | 0 |
| +0.9% to +2.1% | 1 |
| +2.1% to +3.4% | 1 |
| +3.4% to +4.7% | 1 |
| +4.7% to +6.0% | 0 |
| +6.0% to +7.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | -0.01 | $75716.15 | -2.48% | +0.81% | +2.53% | +3.91% | +1.64% | -15.60% |
| 2026-04-17 | -0.01 | $75111.96 | +2.68% | -1.69% | +4.21% | +1.58% | +4.02% | -13.84% |
| 2026-03-11 | -0.01 | $69849.20 | +0.26% | +1.42% | +5.95% | +0.97% | +2.17% | -9.71% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.01 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2025-10-12 | -0.01 | $110655.27 | +3.98% | +2.18% | -3.11% | +0.88% | -4.25% | -18.17% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-11: +5.95%
- 2026-02-06: +5.54%
- 2026-04-17: +4.21%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-12: -3.11%
- 2026-04-19: +2.53%
- 2026-04-17: +4.21%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.