Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Bitcoin has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.50% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -3.9% to -2.2% | 2 |
| -2.2% to -0.5% | 1 |
| -0.5% to +1.2% | 0 |
| +1.2% to +2.9% | 0 |
| +2.9% to +4.7% | 2 |
| +4.7% to +6.4% | 0 |
| +6.4% to +8.1% | 0 |
| +8.1% to +9.8% | 0 |
| +9.8% to +11.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $81264.70 | -1.96% | -1.15% | -5.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $69291.01 | +5.38% | +11.24% | +14.04% | +11.55% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $74481.64 | -0.25% | +0.85% | +1.85% | +3.87% | +6.45% | -14.41% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $72752.30 | -2.59% | -7.44% | -3.74% | -2.11% | -8.15% | -8.28% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $67850.11 | -0.52% | -1.23% | +7.23% | +3.21% | -2.24% | +11.79% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $70272.52 | -1.46% | -0.14% | -2.04% | -3.23% | -6.02% | +13.88% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $91320.08 | +2.31% | -2.25% | +1.50% | -3.94% | -2.80% | -24.64% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +14.04%
- 2026-02-26: +7.23%
- 2026-04-14: +1.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -5.80%
- 2026-03-05: -3.74%
- 2026-02-07: -2.04%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.