Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Bitcoin has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.82% and 57.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -21.7% to -18.0% | 1 |
| -18.0% to -14.3% | 1 |
| -14.3% to -10.7% | 3 |
| -10.7% to -7.0% | 1 |
| -7.0% to -3.3% | 2 |
| -3.3% to +0.4% | 4 |
| +0.4% to +4.1% | 3 |
| +4.1% to +7.7% | 2 |
| +7.7% to +11.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.70% | -0.77% | 31.6% | 5.81% | -6.44% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.42% | -0.90% | 57.9% | 6.74% | -10.53% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.82% | -2.03% | 57.9% | 10.33% | -25.82% |
| 14 days | 19 | -1.31% | -2.59% | 42.1% | 11.43% | -21.71% |
| 30 days | 18 | 1.37% | -2.72% | 55.6% | 13.90% | -24.25% |
| 90 days | 18 | -10.86% | -8.88% | 22.2% | 33.31% | -30.09% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $75590.24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $77820.76 | +0.52% | +0.94% | +2.38% | -0.79% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $60960.10 | -0.17% | +3.46% | +4.22% | +4.15% | +4.31% | +33.31% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $71320.29 | -6.44% | -10.53% | -11.57% | -7.05% | -15.92% | +8.89% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $70660.64 | +5.41% | +5.90% | +4.50% | +11.29% | +13.90% | -9.72% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $68727.21 | -3.49% | -4.05% | -2.68% | +3.84% | +12.96% | -11.26% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $71220.05 | -1.80% | -3.93% | +0.12% | -4.58% | +8.29% | -7.86% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $68142.88 | -1.18% | +0.42% | +3.96% | +3.50% | +1.26% | -6.36% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $65192.19 | -0.70% | +4.08% | +0.97% | +1.30% | +8.19% | +17.63% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $75628.04 | -3.40% | -7.08% | -8.97% | -10.67% | -6.29% | +5.55% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $78647.03 | -2.23% | -3.84% | -11.95% | -11.25% | -12.50% | -0.56% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $84630.42 | -0.64% | -9.14% | -25.82% | -21.71% | -20.81% | -10.45% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $88416.89 | +1.17% | +1.25% | +0.82% | -14.46% | -24.25% | -14.20% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $89264.23 | -0.04% | +1.53% | +1.12% | -1.31% | +2.93% | -20.61% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $86303.90 | +5.81% | +6.74% | +5.01% | +0.13% | +1.47% | -23.73% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $86618.47 | -1.77% | +0.14% | +5.43% | +6.35% | +2.00% | -23.31% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $94772.61 | +0.64% | -2.82% | -10.22% | -4.08% | -6.95% | -30.09% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $106451.71 | -4.67% | -4.88% | -0.47% | -13.48% | -12.23% | -27.76% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $113043.68 | -2.11% | +1.93% | -5.80% | -1.78% | -7.46% | -19.48% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $109233.05 | +0.39% | +2.70% | +10.33% | +11.43% | +2.20% | -19.81% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +10.33%
- 2025-11-21: +5.43%
- 2025-12-02: +5.01%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.82%
- 2026-02-01: -11.95%
- 2026-06-02: -11.57%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.