Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 2x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Bitcoin dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.0% to -2.2% | 1 |
| -2.2% to -0.5% | 2 |
| -0.5% to +1.3% | 0 |
| +1.3% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +4.8% | 0 |
| +4.8% to +6.6% | 1 |
| +6.6% to +8.4% | 0 |
| +8.4% to +10.2% | 0 |
| +10.2% to +11.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 2.37 | $78973.89 | -0.59% | +1.64% | -0.53% | +0.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.03 | $69291.01 | +5.38% | +11.24% | +14.04% | +11.55% | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 2.10 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.88 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.82 | $113043.68 | -2.11% | +1.93% | -5.80% | -1.78% | -7.46% | -19.48% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +14.04%
- 2026-02-06: +5.54%
- 2026-08-25: -0.53%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -7.58%
- 2025-10-11: -5.80%
- 2026-08-25: -0.53%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.