Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 20% 30-Day Correction?
Bitcoin has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.24% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.1% to -6.9% | 2 |
| -6.9% to -4.6% | 0 |
| -4.6% to -2.4% | 0 |
| -2.4% to -0.2% | 1 |
| -0.2% to +2.1% | 1 |
| +2.1% to +4.3% | 1 |
| +4.3% to +6.5% | 1 |
| +6.5% to +8.7% | 0 |
| +8.7% to +11.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | -20.43 | $58566.09 | +2.39% | +6.81% | +8.14% | +10.96% | +10.55% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -21.06 | $60989.57 | -2.07% | -1.70% | -1.68% | +2.06% | +5.09% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | -20.54 | $64408.81 | +2.02% | +1.88% | -0.24% | -6.92% | -3.31% | +19.86% |
| 2026-06-05 | -21.14 | $63810.66 | -4.47% | -0.84% | -0.40% | -1.43% | -1.13% | +21.14% |
| 2026-02-05 | -22.18 | $73059.18 | -14.07% | -5.22% | -8.17% | -9.08% | -6.73% | +10.75% |
| 2025-12-02 | -21.59 | $86303.90 | +5.81% | +6.74% | +5.01% | +0.13% | +1.47% | -23.73% |
| 2025-11-21 | -20.02 | $86618.47 | -1.77% | +0.14% | +5.43% | +6.35% | +2.00% | -23.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-01: +8.14%
- 2025-11-21: +5.43%
- 2025-12-02: +5.01%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-05: -8.17%
- 2026-06-25: -1.68%
- 2026-06-05: -0.40%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.