Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Bitcoin has recorded 4 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.28% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 4 | -3.71% | -2.57% | 25.0% | 2.36% | -5.24% |
| 3 days | 4 | -7.22% | -5.35% | 25.0% | 1.69% | -8.64% |
| 7 days | 4 | -4.28% | -3.98% | 25.0% | 1.61% | -8.97% |
| 14 days | 4 | -5.06% | -4.64% | 25.0% | 2.21% | -10.67% |
| 30 days | 4 | -7.07% | -6.75% | 0.0% | -3.63% | -9.22% |
| 90 days | 4 | -8.46% | -6.32% | 50.0% | 17.72% | -26.09% |
Historical occurrences
4 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -15.01 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-02-04 | -17.69 | $75628.04 | -3.40% | -7.08% | -8.97% | -10.67% | -6.29% | +5.55% |
| 2025-11-20 | -17.30 | $91408.36 | -5.24% | -7.37% | -0.98% | +2.21% | -3.63% | -26.09% |
| 2025-11-05 | -17.82 | $101480.77 | +2.36% | +1.69% | +1.61% | -8.45% | -9.22% | -22.48% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-05: +1.61%
- 2025-11-20: -0.98%
- 2026-06-03: -7.58%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-04: -8.97%
- 2026-06-03: -7.58%
- 2025-11-20: -0.98%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.