Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Solana

51 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 33 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (18 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades32
Win rate37.5%
Average return / trade-1.47%
Compounded total return-46.77%
Max drawdown-62.31%
Buy & hold, same period-54.62%

Hypothetical growth of $100

1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-10 2025-09-17 $217.3329 $236.9185 +9.01% 109.01
2025-09-18 2025-09-25 $244.7149 $211.6243 -13.52% 94.27
2025-09-29 2025-10-06 $210.7475 $228.5162 +8.43% 102.22
2025-10-09 2025-10-16 $229.0916 $193.9819 -15.33% 86.55
2025-10-19 2025-10-26 $187.6503 $193.9332 +3.35% 89.45
2025-10-27 2025-11-03 $200.0216 $187.6722 -6.17% 83.93
2025-11-10 2025-11-17 $164.4108 $137.1390 -16.59% 70.01
2025-11-17 2025-11-24 $137.1390 $130.5809 -4.78% 66.66
2025-11-26 2025-12-03 $138.9326 $138.6722 -0.19% 66.53
2025-12-03 2025-12-10 $138.6722 $137.8941 -0.56% 66.16
2025-12-10 2025-12-17 $137.8941 $129.0976 -6.38% 61.94
2025-12-19 2025-12-26 $119.5348 $120.0178 +0.40% 62.19
2026-01-02 2026-01-09 $126.9562 $138.3793 +9.00% 67.79
2026-01-09 2026-01-16 $138.3793 $142.3753 +2.89% 69.74
2026-01-17 2026-01-24 $144.9119 $127.4541 -12.05% 61.34
2026-02-26 2026-03-05 $88.0792 $91.0730 +3.40% 63.43
2026-03-16 2026-03-23 $92.8425 $86.5100 -6.82% 59.10
2026-03-24 2026-03-31 $91.6200 $82.4461 -10.01% 53.18
2026-04-08 2026-04-15 $85.7378 $83.8194 -2.24% 51.99
2026-04-16 2026-04-23 $84.9603 $86.9316 +2.32% 53.20
2026-05-04 2026-05-11 $83.8417 $96.4109 +14.99% 61.17
2026-05-13 2026-05-20 $94.2851 $84.1908 -10.71% 54.63
2026-05-22 2026-05-29 $87.1739 $82.0439 -5.88% 51.41
2026-06-02 2026-06-09 $81.1610 $66.8026 -17.69% 42.32
2026-06-19 2026-06-26 $69.6488 $67.6320 -2.90% 41.09
2026-06-27 2026-07-04 $71.8142 $82.2912 +14.59% 47.08
2026-07-10 2026-07-17 $77.9922 $75.2692 -3.49% 45.44
2026-07-21 2026-07-28 $77.7489 $74.1431 -4.64% 43.33
2026-08-01 2026-08-08 $72.7950 $73.6175 +1.13% 43.82
2026-08-18 2026-08-25 $75.9730 $98.8672 +30.13% 57.03
2026-08-27 2026-09-03 $102.0489 $100.3906 -1.62% 56.10
2026-09-04 2026-09-11 $103.9605 $98.6313 -5.13% 53.23

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Solana ยท Read the full methodology