Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Rises to +0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding rises to +0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

31 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 24 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (7 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades23
Win rate69.6%
Average return / trade+7.49%
Compounded total return+312.11%
Max drawdown-28.87%
Buy & hold, same period+114.87%

Hypothetical growth of $100

1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-13 2025-10-20 $39.7497 $37.4117 -5.88% 94.12
2025-10-30 2025-11-06 $47.9558 $41.3223 -13.83% 81.10
2025-12-07 2025-12-14 $30.9477 $29.6418 -4.22% 77.68
2026-01-07 2026-01-14 $28.2188 $25.8407 -8.43% 71.13
2026-01-22 2026-01-29 $21.6214 $34.2792 +58.54% 112.77
2026-01-30 2026-02-06 $30.7396 $33.0075 +7.38% 121.09
2026-02-08 2026-02-15 $31.4764 $31.8791 +1.28% 122.64
2026-02-17 2026-02-24 $31.2807 $26.4557 -15.42% 103.72
2026-03-05 2026-03-12 $32.2221 $36.2503 +12.50% 116.69
2026-03-14 2026-03-21 $36.4742 $39.5926 +8.55% 126.67
2026-03-22 2026-03-29 $38.8966 $39.4768 +1.49% 128.56
2026-03-31 2026-04-07 $36.8313 $36.2956 -1.45% 126.69
2026-04-11 2026-04-18 $41.5975 $44.6219 +7.27% 135.90
2026-04-20 2026-04-27 $40.6048 $42.5031 +4.68% 142.25
2026-05-01 2026-05-08 $39.6906 $42.5205 +7.13% 152.39
2026-05-12 2026-05-19 $42.0017 $47.7105 +13.59% 173.11
2026-05-20 2026-05-27 $48.0668 $59.4893 +23.76% 214.24
2026-05-28 2026-06-04 $57.8225 $74.5031 +28.85% 276.05
2026-06-08 2026-06-15 $59.6133 $63.8873 +7.17% 295.84
2026-06-28 2026-07-05 $61.6218 $69.8153 +13.30% 335.18
2026-07-21 2026-07-28 $62.4209 $56.0406 -10.22% 300.92
2026-08-15 2026-08-22 $56.4630 $75.5007 +33.72% 402.38
2026-08-30 2026-09-06 $83.3935 $85.4105 +2.42% 412.11

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology