Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
14 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 10 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (4 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $102.7864 | $119.4989 | +16.26% | 116.26 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $96.8838 | $90.1182 | -6.98% | 108.14 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $87.3668 | $104.3072 | +19.39% | 129.11 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-24 | $95.7838 | $83.0208 | -13.32% | 111.91 |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-12-03 | $85.2709 | $82.8478 | -2.84% | 108.73 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $75.9464 | $75.6953 | -0.33% | 108.37 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $72.3009 | $68.2044 | -5.67% | 102.23 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $59.4259 | $55.1797 | -7.15% | 94.92 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-18 | $53.3494 | $53.9253 | +1.08% | 95.95 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-12 | $45.5805 | $42.4309 | -6.91% | 89.32 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology