Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Avalanche has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.05% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -0.9% to +0.5% | 2 |
| +0.5% to +1.8% | 1 |
| +1.8% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +4.6% | 1 |
| +4.6% to +5.9% | 0 |
| +5.9% to +7.3% | 0 |
| +7.3% to +8.6% | 0 |
| +8.6% to +10.0% | 0 |
| +10.0% to +11.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 2.00% | 3.02% | 66.7% | 11.31% | -0.86% |
| 3 days | 6 | 5.24% | 2.87% | 66.7% | 10.10% | -6.27% |
| 7 days | 6 | -1.05% | 0.23% | 33.3% | 12.66% | -12.12% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.17% | 1.05% | 50.0% | 10.69% | -10.28% |
| 30 days | 6 | -0.44% | -0.56% | 50.0% | 8.31% | -14.86% |
| 90 days | 6 | -13.40% | -12.75% | 33.3% | 15.42% | -40.72% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $6.81 | -0.65% | -6.27% | -0.34% | -10.28% | -1.77% | +11.52% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $9.20 | -0.86% | +5.49% | -4.79% | -2.22% | +0.90% | -35.93% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $8.92 | +4.32% | +7.11% | +12.66% | +2.21% | +6.04% | -25.33% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $9.08 | +1.47% | +4.99% | -1.75% | +10.69% | -1.97% | -1.48% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $15.14 | +2.53% | -4.20% | -12.12% | -1.87% | -14.86% | -40.72% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-09: +12.66%
- 2026-02-06: +7.74%
- 2026-06-08: -0.34%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -12.12%
- 2026-03-22: -4.79%
- 2026-03-02: -1.75%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.