Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Avalanche has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.91% and 38.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.5% to -2.8% | 5 |
| -2.8% to -1.1% | 4 |
| -1.1% to +0.6% | 7 |
| +0.6% to +2.3% | 2 |
| +2.3% to +4.0% | 0 |
| +4.0% to +5.7% | 0 |
| +5.7% to +7.4% | 0 |
| +7.4% to +9.1% | 2 |
| +9.1% to +10.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 21 | -0.95% | -0.01% | 33.3% | 10.76% | -4.51% |
| 3 days | 21 | -0.67% | -1.23% | 47.6% | 10.61% | -12.05% |
| 7 days | 21 | -0.91% | -2.95% | 38.1% | 9.83% | -17.97% |
| 14 days | 21 | -3.47% | -4.03% | 33.3% | 12.79% | -25.22% |
| 30 days | 20 | -4.40% | -11.00% | 40.0% | 11.36% | -39.34% |
| 90 days | 16 | -35.40% | -34.39% | 6.2% | 2.51% | -61.21% |
Historical occurrences
21 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 7.05 | $6.77 | +7.62% | +10.61% | +9.83% | +6.12% | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 5.78 | $6.54 | +0.34% | +1.71% | -1.93% | -3.36% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 7.51 | $6.77 | -0.54% | -3.00% | -8.64% | -4.37% | +11.36% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 6.22 | $6.62 | -2.89% | +0.75% | +4.97% | +1.83% | +1.82% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 5.84 | $6.24 | -2.06% | +3.91% | +3.01% | +11.59% | +5.39% | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 7.32 | $9.69 | -3.89% | +0.39% | -4.27% | -4.40% | +0.60% | -33.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.37 | $9.46 | -4.36% | -0.67% | -1.51% | -0.74% | +0.46% | -26.80% |
| 2026-03-24 | 5.46 | $9.62 | +0.89% | -4.87% | -8.47% | -7.52% | -2.86% | -36.48% |
| 2026-02-26 | 13.94 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.31 | $9.27 | -0.09% | -2.28% | -0.52% | -0.51% | -3.77% | +2.51% |
| 2026-01-14 | 9.47 | $14.79 | -1.11% | -7.98% | -17.97% | -17.56% | -39.34% | -34.47% |
| 2026-01-02 | 10.87 | $13.65 | +1.25% | +4.73% | +1.72% | +1.36% | -25.57% | -33.11% |
| 2025-12-20 | 7.13 | $12.25 | -0.35% | +1.23% | +0.74% | +12.79% | +4.06% | -22.11% |
| 2025-12-10 | 7.15 | $14.62 | -3.33% | -10.31% | -15.58% | -16.67% | -5.02% | -36.33% |
| 2025-12-03 | 6.96 | $13.64 | +8.56% | -3.06% | +7.17% | -9.53% | +0.06% | -32.45% |
| 2025-11-27 | 5.41 | $14.94 | +0.53% | -4.64% | -0.91% | -5.44% | -17.40% | -43.96% |
| 2025-11-08 | 10.47 | $17.79 | -1.75% | +2.16% | -14.90% | -25.22% | -24.35% | -53.18% |
| 2025-10-27 | 5.64 | $20.83 | -2.42% | -5.63% | -9.54% | -14.69% | -31.95% | -41.60% |
| 2025-10-14 | 5.71 | $23.83 | -4.51% | -12.05% | -14.58% | -14.70% | -29.46% | -42.39% |
| 2025-09-18 | 5.75 | $31.81 | +10.76% | +4.31% | +1.64% | -3.47% | -37.26% | -61.21% |
| 2025-09-11 | 13.50 | $29.45 | -0.95% | +2.11% | +8.01% | +9.78% | -29.16% | -50.37% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +9.83%
- 2025-09-11: +8.01%
- 2025-12-03: +7.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -17.97%
- 2025-12-10: -15.58%
- 2025-11-08: -14.90%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.