Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Avalanche has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.24% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.4% to -2.6% | 1 |
| -2.6% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +0.9% | 2 |
| +0.9% to +2.6% | 0 |
| +2.6% to +4.3% | 2 |
| +4.3% to +6.1% | 0 |
| +6.1% to +7.8% | 0 |
| +7.8% to +9.6% | 0 |
| +9.6% to +11.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 1.70% | 2.24% | 66.7% | 11.31% | -4.38% |
| 3 days | 6 | 2.94% | 2.94% | 66.7% | 14.20% | -7.78% |
| 7 days | 6 | -3.24% | -1.73% | 33.3% | 7.74% | -13.23% |
| 14 days | 6 | -8.43% | -5.39% | 33.3% | 7.77% | -12.33% |
| 30 days | 6 | -5.96% | -7.88% | 50.0% | 8.31% | -30.94% |
| 90 days | 6 | -10.32% | -8.12% | 50.0% | 25.51% | -35.52% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | -20.71 | $6.38 | +4.02% | +5.24% | +5.93% | +1.13% | +5.58% | +25.51% |
| 2026-06-06 | -23.80 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-02-06 | -24.82 | $8.33 | +11.31% | +10.10% | +7.74% | +7.77% | +8.31% | +15.42% |
| 2025-11-18 | -20.20 | $14.50 | +0.42% | -4.74% | -4.20% | -12.06% | -18.32% | -35.52% |
| 2025-10-16 | -23.95 | $21.92 | -4.38% | -7.78% | -13.23% | -10.31% | -30.94% | -32.51% |
| 2025-10-11 | -33.48 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +7.74%
- 2026-06-11: +5.93%
- 2026-06-06: -2.28%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-16: -13.23%
- 2025-10-11: -4.34%
- 2025-11-18: -4.20%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.