Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 20% 30-Day Correction?
Avalanche has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.25% and 30.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -46.7% to -40.2% | 1 |
| -40.2% to -33.7% | 0 |
| -33.7% to -27.2% | 4 |
| -27.2% to -20.7% | 0 |
| -20.7% to -14.2% | 2 |
| -14.2% to -7.7% | 1 |
| -7.7% to -1.2% | 1 |
| -1.2% to +5.3% | 0 |
| +5.3% to +11.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | -0.46% | 0.04% | 40.0% | 7.13% | -4.97% |
| 3 days | 10 | -0.76% | 0.05% | 50.0% | 14.20% | -10.99% |
| 7 days | 10 | -3.25% | -4.40% | 30.0% | 5.62% | -16.17% |
| 14 days | 10 | -6.95% | -4.83% | 30.0% | 19.34% | -16.64% |
| 30 days | 10 | 0.32% | 0.43% | 50.0% | 20.23% | -21.04% |
| 90 days | 10 | -23.56% | -20.97% | 10.0% | 11.86% | -46.73% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -30.08 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-02-27 | -23.30 | $9.35 | -3.65% | -2.93% | +0.99% | +3.97% | -6.39% | -3.47% |
| 2026-02-01 | -25.57 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2025-12-19 | -21.46 | $11.44 | +7.13% | +6.18% | +5.62% | +19.34% | +20.23% | -15.03% |
| 2025-12-16 | -20.47 | $12.34 | -0.03% | -7.34% | +0.48% | +0.15% | +18.51% | -18.57% |
| 2025-12-11 | -22.24 | $14.13 | -4.97% | -5.27% | -16.17% | -14.32% | -2.28% | -32.19% |
| 2025-12-08 | -24.35 | $13.46 | +1.37% | +5.00% | -4.22% | -9.76% | +8.35% | -32.97% |
| 2025-12-06 | -20.47 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-11-12 | -24.56 | $17.01 | -1.15% | -10.99% | -14.37% | -16.64% | -21.04% | -46.73% |
| 2025-10-11 | -29.16 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-19: +5.62%
- 2026-02-27: +0.99%
- 2025-12-16: +0.48%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-11: -16.17%
- 2025-11-12: -14.37%
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.