Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Avalanche has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.34% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -49.5% to -44.8% | 1 |
| -44.8% to -40.0% | 0 |
| -40.0% to -35.2% | 0 |
| -35.2% to -30.5% | 1 |
| -30.5% to -25.7% | 2 |
| -25.7% to -20.9% | 0 |
| -20.9% to -16.2% | 1 |
| -16.2% to -11.4% | 0 |
| -11.4% to -6.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -0.03% | -1.97% | 42.9% | 2.97% | -12.70% |
| 3 days | 7 | -2.15% | -2.15% | 42.9% | 14.20% | -11.57% |
| 7 days | 7 | -4.34% | -5.08% | 28.6% | 11.96% | -20.20% |
| 14 days | 7 | -6.55% | -6.89% | 28.6% | 11.87% | -23.55% |
| 30 days | 7 | -9.30% | -5.14% | 28.6% | 18.51% | -22.24% |
| 90 days | 7 | -25.89% | -24.74% | 0.0% | -6.61% | -49.54% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -18.14 | $7.70 | -12.70% | -11.57% | -13.79% | -18.03% | -9.60% | -6.61% |
| 2026-02-01 | -25.57 | $10.16 | -1.83% | -2.15% | -8.83% | -4.78% | -9.30% | -10.55% |
| 2025-12-27 | -17.40 | $12.34 | +2.81% | +0.15% | +11.96% | +11.87% | -6.60% | -25.89% |
| 2025-12-16 | -20.47 | $12.34 | -0.03% | -7.34% | +0.48% | +0.15% | +18.51% | -18.57% |
| 2025-12-06 | -20.47 | $13.22 | +1.41% | +3.17% | -0.85% | -7.34% | +8.11% | -28.55% |
| 2025-11-11 | -15.43 | $18.17 | -6.41% | -11.48% | -20.20% | -23.55% | -22.24% | -49.54% |
| 2025-10-11 | -29.16 | $20.86 | +2.97% | +14.20% | -4.34% | -6.55% | -14.84% | -33.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-27: +11.96%
- 2025-12-16: +0.48%
- 2025-12-06: -0.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-11: -20.20%
- 2026-06-05: -13.79%
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.