Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Avalanche has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.30% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -66.4% to -58.7% | 1 |
| -58.7% to -51.1% | 1 |
| -51.1% to -43.4% | 1 |
| -43.4% to -35.8% | 0 |
| -35.8% to -28.1% | 1 |
| -28.1% to -20.5% | 0 |
| -20.5% to -12.8% | 0 |
| -12.8% to -5.1% | 0 |
| -5.1% to +2.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.35% | -1.28% | 16.7% | 1.25% | -4.18% |
| 3 days | 6 | -0.09% | -0.46% | 50.0% | 4.73% | -6.19% |
| 7 days | 6 | -0.30% | -3.98% | 33.3% | 8.01% | -18.11% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.18% | -4.42% | 50.0% | 9.78% | -25.22% |
| 30 days | 6 | -24.96% | -22.24% | 0.0% | -3.77% | -42.63% |
| 90 days | 6 | -41.74% | -34.14% | 16.7% | 2.51% | -66.38% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 13.94 | $9.54 | -1.96% | -3.27% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -7.98% | -4.29% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.31 | $9.27 | -0.09% | -2.28% | -0.52% | -0.51% | -3.77% | +2.51% |
| 2026-01-02 | 10.87 | $13.65 | +1.25% | +4.73% | +1.72% | +1.36% | -25.57% | -33.11% |
| 2025-11-08 | 10.47 | $17.79 | -1.75% | +2.16% | -14.90% | -25.22% | -24.35% | -53.18% |
| 2025-09-19 | 10.76 | $35.23 | -4.18% | -6.19% | -18.11% | -12.09% | -42.63% | -66.38% |
| 2025-09-11 | 13.50 | $29.45 | -0.95% | +2.11% | +8.01% | +9.78% | -29.16% | -50.37% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-11: +8.01%
- 2026-01-02: +1.72%
- 2026-02-26: -0.08%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-09-19: -18.11%
- 2025-11-08: -14.90%
- 2026-02-07: -0.52%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.