Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Rain has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 3.06% and 70.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.6% to +1.1% | 4 |
| +1.1% to +14.9% | 4 |
| +14.9% to +28.6% | 1 |
| +28.6% to +42.4% | 0 |
| +42.4% to +56.1% | 0 |
| +56.1% to +69.9% | 0 |
| +69.9% to +83.6% | 0 |
| +83.6% to +97.4% | 0 |
| +97.4% to +111.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | 3.40% | 5.87% | 70.0% | 25.39% | -7.15% |
| 3 days | 10 | 2.77% | 3.60% | 70.0% | 25.11% | -10.28% |
| 7 days | 10 | 3.06% | 14.30% | 70.0% | 111.11% | -12.63% |
| 14 days | 10 | 9.21% | 16.27% | 70.0% | 129.68% | -12.10% |
| 30 days | 8 | 24.88% | 34.13% | 75.0% | 125.35% | -16.16% |
| 90 days | 8 | 18.58% | 42.19% | 75.0% | 184.40% | -28.74% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 1.99 | $0.02 | -1.19% | +0.56% | -4.40% | -9.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.57 | $0.01 | +22.26% | +16.58% | +12.50% | +9.69% | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 2.08 | $0.01 | +25.39% | +25.11% | +19.37% | +9.41% | +36.19% | +28.39% |
| 2026-05-08 | 1.72 | $0.01 | +1.19% | +2.44% | +1.50% | +0.91% | +73.18% | +68.78% |
| 2026-03-26 | 1.59 | $0.01 | -7.15% | -10.28% | -12.63% | -12.10% | -16.16% | +73.97% |
| 2026-01-10 | 1.67 | $0.01 | +7.24% | +3.09% | +12.76% | +18.44% | +9.26% | -6.49% |
| 2026-01-07 | 1.83 | $0.01 | -1.49% | -8.54% | -1.85% | -7.88% | -4.57% | -28.74% |
| 2025-12-27 | 1.78 | $0.01 | +6.36% | +3.68% | +4.62% | +9.01% | +23.72% | +8.44% |
| 2025-12-24 | 2.58 | $0.01 | +0.52% | -3.76% | +0.07% | +14.70% | +26.04% | +8.77% |
| 2025-11-21 | 1.97 | $0.00 | +5.60% | +7.17% | +111.11% | +129.68% | +125.35% | +184.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +111.11%
- 2026-05-27: +19.37%
- 2026-01-10: +12.76%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-26: -12.63%
- 2026-08-27: -4.40%
- 2026-01-07: -1.85%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.