Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
Hyperliquid has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.47% and 66.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.5% to -9.8% | 1 |
| -9.8% to -7.0% | 0 |
| -7.0% to -4.3% | 1 |
| -4.3% to -1.6% | 0 |
| -1.6% to +1.2% | 0 |
| +1.2% to +3.9% | 2 |
| +3.9% to +6.6% | 0 |
| +6.6% to +9.4% | 1 |
| +9.4% to +12.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 1.55% | 1.47% | 66.7% | 10.40% | -5.18% |
| 3 days | 6 | -0.28% | -0.86% | 50.0% | 9.87% | -15.58% |
| 7 days | 6 | 2.47% | 1.06% | 66.7% | 12.10% | -12.50% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.78% | -1.17% | 50.0% | 24.49% | -21.65% |
| 30 days | 6 | -9.50% | -2.87% | 33.3% | 17.08% | -14.63% |
| 90 days | 6 | -9.57% | 9.82% | 50.0% | 86.75% | -44.33% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | -2.17 | $35.24 | +1.03% | +5.02% | +12.10% | +24.49% | +17.08% | +76.94% |
| 2025-12-19 | -7.93 | $22.53 | +10.40% | +9.87% | +8.22% | +7.39% | +12.79% | +86.75% |
| 2025-12-09 | -0.53 | $29.47 | -5.18% | -1.03% | -6.42% | -15.68% | -8.96% | +4.51% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.56 | $40.11 | -2.43% | -3.90% | +3.56% | -2.70% | -13.50% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-08 | -4.82 | $45.15 | +2.95% | -15.58% | -12.50% | -21.65% | -14.63% | -41.32% |
| 2025-09-24 | -5.53 | $44.64 | +2.07% | +0.46% | +1.39% | +1.15% | -10.03% | -44.33% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-04-03: +12.10%
- 2025-12-19: +8.22%
- 2025-11-04: +3.56%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-08: -12.50%
- 2025-12-09: -6.42%
- 2025-09-24: +1.39%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.