Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
14 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $93.4343 | $91.6778 | -1.88% | 98.12 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $92.6466 | $96.6683 | +4.34% | 102.38 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $87.3668 | $104.3072 | +19.39% | 122.23 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $80.3692 | $81.9242 | +1.93% | 124.60 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $81.9242 | $77.4827 | -5.42% | 117.84 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $81.3843 | $75.1781 | -7.63% | 108.85 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $67.2305 | $69.9621 | +4.06% | 113.28 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $66.2551 | $50.8023 | -23.32% | 86.86 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $54.3328 | $52.6708 | -3.06% | 84.20 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $43.5222 | $47.3018 | +8.68% | 91.51 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $45.5399 | $45.4039 | -0.30% | 91.24 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology