Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 10, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
6 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 6 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $2.2436 | $1.9495 | -13.11% | 86.89 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $1.2133 | $1.3769 | +13.48% | 98.60 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-09 | $1.3623 | $1.3549 | -0.54% | 98.07 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-16 | $1.3549 | $1.4583 | +7.63% | 105.55 |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026-03-29 | $1.4130 | $1.3343 | -5.57% | 99.67 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1.1549 | $1.1858 | +2.68% | 102.34 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.