Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 5% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
7 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 7 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (0 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $0.1459 | $0.1480 | +1.49% | 101.49 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.0983 | $0.0975 | -0.88% | 100.59 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.1013 | $0.0994 | -1.88% | 98.70 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.0994 | $0.0930 | -6.47% | 92.31 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-21 | $0.0941 | $0.0952 | +1.18% | 93.40 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.0750 | $0.0877 | +16.91% | 109.19 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.0878 | $0.0829 | -5.62% | 103.06 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology