Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Zcash
20 historical signal(s) detected for Zcash; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $120.1539 | $175.5784 | +46.13% | 146.13 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $261.2857 | $235.5366 | -9.85% | 131.73 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $526.4443 | $339.0926 | -35.59% | 84.85 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $444.3941 | $447.7749 | +0.76% | 85.49 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $404.7146 | $349.5431 | -13.63% | 73.84 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $240.1038 | $266.6353 | +11.05% | 82.00 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $266.6353 | $258.0195 | -3.23% | 79.35 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $243.5030 | $243.2615 | -0.10% | 79.27 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $243.2615 | $212.6606 | -12.58% | 69.30 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $228.3173 | $225.4206 | -1.27% | 68.42 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $321.7812 | $355.1249 | +10.36% | 75.51 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $439.9814 | $472.5013 | +7.39% | 81.09 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $564.1363 | $532.2180 | -5.66% | 76.50 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $564.5716 | $816.3760 | +44.60% | 110.62 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $952.6663 | $1079.8141 | +13.35% | 125.39 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.