Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Litecoin
20 historical signal(s) detected for Litecoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $115.2913 | $118.5840 | +2.86% | 102.86 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $98.7060 | $93.3129 | -5.46% | 97.24 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $86.8604 | $85.9046 | -1.10% | 96.17 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $77.4827 | $76.8272 | -0.85% | 95.35 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $78.3122 | $67.2305 | -14.15% | 81.86 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $54.8135 | $55.0431 | +0.42% | 82.20 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $55.0431 | $55.2270 | +0.33% | 82.48 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $56.7460 | $56.7829 | +0.07% | 82.53 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $56.7829 | $54.8536 | -3.40% | 79.73 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $55.7546 | $53.2797 | -4.44% | 76.19 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $55.5205 | $54.3436 | -2.12% | 74.57 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $42.8114 | $45.3777 | +5.99% | 79.04 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $45.3863 | $46.8235 | +3.17% | 81.55 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $46.7607 | $50.5035 | +8.00% | 88.07 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $51.4784 | $52.1078 | +1.22% | 89.15 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Litecoin · Read the full methodology