Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 5% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for WhiteBIT Coin
6 historical signal(s) detected for WhiteBIT Coin; 5 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $42.3741 | $40.6859 | -3.98% | 96.02 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $56.9872 | $59.3942 | +4.22% | 100.07 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $50.8203 | $47.3491 | -6.83% | 93.24 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $47.3491 | $49.3735 | +4.28% | 97.22 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $48.5807 | $50.9637 | +4.91% | 101.99 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for WhiteBIT Coin · Read the full methodology